The blog I didn't want to write

I am currently infected with Covid-19 in Brisbane, Australia.
.
TLDR; Life is about to get very very hard for everyone, help each other.

How this article started...

I have been following Covid-19 for around 10 weeks due to personal interest. I believe this is one of the most fascinating and impactful events that will occur in my lifetime, coincidentally, I happened to contract the virus as part of the early cases in Australia.

I posted a picture on social media to make sure everyone knew I was fine, because as more people found out they were all worried for me. Sometimes it's easier to post something to let everyone know you're fine, rather than the same repeated responses to the queries of how I was.

"I would tell them that their parents, any friends who have a chronic disease, anyone friend recovering from an auto immune disease will likely die when the hospitals are full in western countries unless you stay the hell home."

I have been asked to write a public post to share what is going on, primarily after writing the above statement.  This comes from my research, being on the inside of it all, and what my opinion is regarding this situation.

Please take any of my opinions with as many grains of salt you choose.  The facts however are very sobering.

My first notes were four pages long, I have tried to condense this as much as possible, but I feel it may be multiple posts - sorry not sorry.

I am one of the lucky ones.

I went on a Ski holiday with Friends from England in Morzine, France, I travelled from Morzine, to Geneva on connecting flights through Zurich and Abu Dhabi to Brisbane, Australia.

I discovered my symptoms 4 days after returning from my holiday. (co-incidentally, 2 days after my girlfriend moved in from a long distance relationship) If there were symptoms beforehand I could not tell due to jet-lag - I decided to do the public health duty and self-isolated, as did my girlfriend and housemate until I could see my doctor (48 hours later).  My doctor referred me to a pathology lab due to my travel history. Once able to book in, and subsequently tested (24 hours later), they fully suited up and did two Nasopharyngeal swabs. (it is not comfortable, example: https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/covid-19-doctor-explains-how-the-nasal-swab-procedure-works-/5678373/)

After 36 hours I was feeling fine, drunk and in the middle of playing board games with my girlfriend and my housemate when the call came in, after hanging up on the person for calling me from an unknown number (thinking it was spam), a second call was taken more seriously.  "You tested positive for Coronavirus Covid-19, we are picking you up in 5 minutes in an ambulance and putting you in isolation at the hospital"

During my time actually feeling sick (as everyone asks), Saturday I began feeling like I had a flu. For me this means muscle aches and bright light hurts and I had a slight fever.  Sunday I felt like I had a stomach bug, diarrhea and feeling like I needed to throw up, but by the evening I felt like a regular flu again.  Monday was better, Tuesday was even more-so.  By Wednesday, being still in isolation I felt totally fine enough to have a mid-week celebration with the housemate and my girlfriend by playing some settlers of Catan and drinking red wine.

My housemates were required to get tested (both results negative) and to self-isolate for 14 days no matter the results once I was identified as confirmed.

Hospital

Having been the third person in my Hospital with Covid-19 and the ~120th case in Australia, I have watched what is happening from the inside.

I was put into full isolation and tested via swab, two rectally, one nasal, bloods taken.

For the next 5 days, I was tested nasally every day.  Every four hours my blood pressure taken, oxygen levels recorded, temperature taken and questioned on health.

It is hard to tell which day it was, as time moves very slowly in full isolation, but I was moved to a 'four bed' room, psychologically it was good to see others at this stage.  Two more days of this and the ward got full and all symptomless cases required to leave the hospital.

I am now in home-isolation, and will not be allowed to leave my room until I test negative two days in a row

Number theory

The guy to my left in hospital had been in hospital for 17 days and testing positive and negative on and off, this is when we parted ways.  The guy over the other side of the room's partner who also traveled with him in Italy was not testing positive the same day he had entered hospital, but she had suddenly developed severe respiratory issues and a fever the day I left hospital.

The reports when I left hospital were 465 Covid-19 Cases, as I type this, we report 1051 cases in Australia. So in 48 hours, the number of cases has doubled. and pathology results are currently taking 36 hours to be determined.

By the time my girlfriend is out of quarantine (in 96 hours from writing this), if these same models are being used, the case numbers should be (1051 * 2) * 2, so around 4000 total confirmed cases.  If we then realise that the testing process is 36 hours behind, that becomes something like 4000 confirmed cases as well as another 4000 yet to be confirmed cases.

Taking a previous example of SARS in 2002-2004, I do not predict a 'cure' to exist for this Coronavirus (despite many very smart people trying their hardest), as this is a very complex problem.  I am going to have to go by history to feed my future predictions.

Current predictions list the 7th-8th of April is when we will run out of ICU beds for those going through severe distress (https://www.dailyexaminer.com.au/news/when-australia-will-run-out-of-icu-beds/3977991/)

"it took 108 hours to get my initial result"

In hospitals around the world, all 'non life threatening' surgeries are being cancelled, hospital staff are being contacted and added to emergency lists, and predictions internally from friends who are hospital staff and my talks with hospital staff while admitted are that next week will be very very hard.

The current strategy from Queensland Health is as follows: Once confirmed, you are to be set as 'Isolated', after 7 days from first confirmation you are tested once more. If positive you are tested in 48 hours. If negative you are tested again in 24 hours. This process is repeated until you test negative twice.

I predict that in one week, it will change as below.


(resources = staff / ICU equipment / beds / protective equipment / medicines)

This process is happening in Italy with large death tolls due to people not isolating, when the numbers were rising rapidly.

"our confirmed numbers are two days old"

Results currently takes 36 hours, even when I was in hospital, the initial discussion I had with the infectious disease specialist was that they are doing 1000 per day on a machine that can do 20 at once (this has changed since my conversation with him last week as we have ramped up testing facilities) - so the numbers we have are completely and utterly wrong, in my case it took 108 hours to get my initial result from when I had symptoms - our confirmed numbers are two days old and personally suspected people cannot get tested.

What I believe

My immediate family are at risk - My brother has type-1 diabetes and is coeliac. Mum's age and the fact that she smokes means a 50% increase in risk, and my father has had many issues with pneumonia and has asthma.

I have friends with lymes disease, bornholm disease, who have recently had cancer, have diabetes, have chronic illness, have lupis, have auto-immune disorders, and are overweight. I also have friend's parent's, mentors, work colleagues and friends who are simply in the age bracket with amazingly high risk.  If an emergency happens to my friends or their children during this crisis period, there is a significantly increased chance that they may die due to limited healthcare resources.

"these are the percent that actually die"

All these categories are at increased risk - these are the percent that actually die.  My bet is that you too have friends and that you too have family.  This is going to impact you when it impacts them.

Once we crossed the 100 person infection rate (reported 12 hours before I was taken to hospital) this is the canary in the mine moment and severe action needed to take place.  Unfortunately it did not and has not.

What I have done

I have spoken to family and friends when I can see a risk for them and suggested that they do a few things to help themselves (as I was stuck in hospital, and now stuck isolated in my bedroom, it has been hard for me to actually do anything for them).

For overseas friends who were coming to visit on the weekend - do not come.

For Australian friends overseas, I asked them to decide where they would prefer to be for the next 3-6 months as airports will close

For family and friends who are at risk.  I have said to stay at home no matter what.

My belief is that the government is not doing enough, this is partly due to economic reasons, partly due to each government re-creating its own 'wheel', partly due to political positioning.  None of this matters right now.  If you look at any of the statistical curves (I encourage you to do your own research on all of these topics), you will see that we are destined to have severe economic issues, severe social issues along with the severe health issues.  All sane models predict a 2-3 times increase of unemployment.

An interesting article I read talked about schooling, and trying to prop up people who cannot afford to have their kids at home, its a valid strategy.  What is more important, your children's future via education or being able to pay rent?

I have contacted various companies that I am in contact with - my rock climbing gym is trying to stay afloat and re-assure their customers.  My body corporate has made a huge stuff up by not providing hand sanitiser for the building.  One of my banks says I need to go into one of their branches to prove who I am (once I told them the circumstances, they quickly changed their tune, but also put my account on hold.)

Most recently, my housemate, girlfriend and I were dropped off food from a dear friend who was meaning well, but who was sick last week and was unable to be tested due to 'not travelling overseas, or being in direct contact with someone who is confirmed'.  Unfortunately, the result of this is that my housemate and my girlfriend are potentially infected and unable to get tested due to the same policy.  When I am tested and get two negative results two days in a row, I am now taking my girlfriend to mum's house and have both her and I in isolation downstairs away from my brother and mum.  I will wall up the stairs, allowing us to have our own bathroom, kitchenette, toilet etc, for another two weeks as to not impact the health my family.

Selfishness

Hoarding of goods has not been possible for me - have been in isolation since Saturday 7th of March, by the time I am able to get to the grocery store, apparently there will be no shops open and those that are, will have no goods.  Apparently this is also true for my asthma medication.

Thanks everyone

My mum's freezer stopped working on Wednesday, there are no freezers to purchase due to hoarders.  White goods are no longer being shipped to Australia as Asia which has shut down manufacturing and shipping has not got any goods to ship. I must think about how I am going have only perishable foods when I am looking after her.  I am still waiting to be able to get out and help her.

Call to action

• This is not a zombie apocalypse; I would like my friends and family to really think about what actions they can take to mitigate the risks around everyone in their lives.
• If you feel sick at any point and think 'maybe this is Covid-19' just stay at home for 14 days caution is important, your friends and family love you and will support you by helping you - I know I have had an overwhelming support for many many people who have been kind enough to do anything from shopping to simply calling and asking how I am.
• I think its smart to think about if you are isolated at home for 6 months, what are you going to do?  Does it involve exercise? Learning? Self-development? 
• Economically its going to be hard for everyone, not just you - mortgages need to be paid, kids need to be educated, businesses need to try to stay afloat.  Try to think about the impact this is having on other people and how you can help them while their family is at just as high risk.
• Communicate with other and try figure out how you can help each other - we are all going through this. 

My plan

• As soon as I am not testing positive, I will move from my apartment in central Brisbane to my mum's acreage home, this allows me to look after my mum, drive to drop goods at my dad's and go shopping for my brother who are all in the high risk categories.
• I have ordered 3 carton's of wine to mum's place - psychologically I want to feel like a normal person when the shops close.
• I have signed up for a food delivery service, I hope it still is delivering once needed (5 meals a week for four people) this will alleviate pressure for shopping and risk of exposure.
• I have told my family for the last week that they are not to leave the house due to risk categories (not that they listen).
• I have asked my mum to buy seeds to plant vegetables.
• You can live on rice - I'm sure we have all seen the TV Series 'Survivor'.
• Get only enough that I need from the grocery store - think of people with worse circumstances than yourself.
• Get a top up of my asthma medication.
• I have been actively thinking about what I am going to do while in isolation for three months.  For me it involved exercise, projects, and being outdoors is important to me - so understanding that I must leave my apartment. 
• I won't allow anyone else to go to shops - I am going to try to help my family, friends, and neighbours.
• Should the situation require I will be volunteering my time to help the medical staff - I do not know how this will happen yet.
• The current thinking is that the virus will die on surfaces of infected objects after 12 hours. When I go shopping, I will leave food in my car overnight and clean myself before giving the food to family the next day. I have just talked to my microbiologist at the hospital who calls me daily - he is actually saying that a virus can be up to 72 hours dependent on the surface, temperature, moisture etc. to not be transmittable on a static object.
• Continue to keep good hygiene (as all the guidelines provide).
• My brother has ordered the last freezer from 100km away which is due to arrive Tuesday (if shipping is still occurring by then) so hopefully the four adults at the house will have a freezer.
• I have diversified my investments, cash swap over for my superannuation, no shares, my property is paid for – CASH IS KING.
• I’ve purchased cooking equipment (I want to learn to bake, a new sues vid machine, and a BBQ smoker).
• I’ve purchased what I can for exercise at home.
• I’ve purchased the required equipment to work on my Café Racer motorcycle.
• I am pulling out my guitars and piano's again.
• Looking to purchase a gel blaster as mum lives on acreage and I want to have some fun with my girlfriend and my brother.
• I have been working remotely every day since I have been infected, as I am an IT consultant - if I don't work I don't get paid.  I am going to continue this until it is not possible any more.
• As the girlfriend is Swedish and only just moved to the city I am trying hard to find her sponsored work that she can do remotely.

Good examples I am hearing from friends in other countries

• Denmark - Some grocery stores are only allowing online purchasing.  When you turn up to the store, you send your phone number, and they put the groceries in the back of your car.
• Singapore - which has had SARS and have an entire government department on infectious disease outbreak (I encourage you to look at the Singaporean Prime Ministers speach - https://www.straitstimes.com/politics/pm-lee-to-address-nation-on-covid-19-situation-at-8pm).  Simple things like daily checks in offices for temperature change, splitting work teams into alternating days to reduce potential exposure.
• Sweden - the defence force is starting to ramp up assistance, airport arrival screening, setting up ICU beds in large indoor market areas. When the airline SAS fired most staff, the government created a 'fast-track' nurse assistant training to get more help in hospitals.  Large pharmaceutical companies are trying to employ restaurant staff for warehousing and shipping,

Food for thought

• World War? Nope. But every country that has at least two cents for brains will ensure that they can use the situation to try extend their position.
• I expect the Australian dollar to go to 45 US Cents before the USD falls pretty hard as it is not preparing properly at all.
• The previous economic impacts on big crashes have lasted around 10 years until recovering to pre-crisis levels.  I think this is bigger than a subprime mortgage crisis.

Good luck.

Thank you to everyone who has been nice enough to message / call / video call / deliver food to my girlfriend and housemate / ask me what they can do / insist that I write this / my favourite Indian restaurant who delivered food to me in hospital / the nurses who allowed me to order coffee in hospital / other Covid-19 patients who all supported me / a special thanks to my girlfriend and my housemate for videoconferencing and playing board games while I was in hospital  as well as now that I am still in isolation in my room / most importantly the hospital staff who are only just getting started on this crisis.

This is going to be a very very hard time for everyone.  I truly hope your family and friends make it through this tough time.

Sam